Robert J. Shiller

Robert J. Shiller, born on March twenty-ninth, nineteen forty-six, is a prominent American economist, academic, and author. As of two thousand twenty-two, he holds the esteemed position of Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University and is affiliated with the Yale School of Management's International Center for Finance as a fellow. His extensive career includes being a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research since nineteen eighty, and he has held significant roles in various economic associations, including serving as vice president of the American Economic Association in two thousand five and president in two thousand sixteen.

Shiller is widely recognized for his groundbreaking contributions to economic theory and practice. He co-developed the Case-Shiller housing price index, a statistical tool that evaluates property values based on recent sales of comparable homes. Additionally, he challenged the Efficient Market Hypothesis by demonstrating that the U.S. stock market exhibited greater volatility than expected under a constant real return scenario. His work on the Cyclically-Adjusted Price-Earnings (CAPE) ratio has also gained widespread acceptance, providing a method to assess stock market valuation by averaging inflation-adjusted earnings over the past decade.

Throughout his career, Shiller has been a vocal advocate for caution in the face of economic bubbles. In two thousand three, he co-authored a pivotal paper titled "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?" and later warned in two thousand five about the potential for significant declines in stock and housing markets, which could lead to a global recession. His foresight continued as he cautioned in The Wall Street Journal in August two thousand six about the risks of an impending recession and predicted the collapse of the U.S. housing market in September two thousand seven, just before the financial crisis unfolded.

Shiller's influence in the field of economics has been recognized globally, as he was ranked among the one hundred most influential economists by the IDEAS RePEc publications monitor in two thousand eight and maintained this status in two thousand nineteen. His remarkable achievements culminated in receiving the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in two thousand thirteen, shared with Eugene Fama and Lars Peter Hansen, for their empirical analysis of asset prices.